With a UK election date now set for 12 December, headlines about opinion polls are coming thick and fast. However, recent elections have important lessons for. With less than three days to go until Britain holds a national election, opinion polls suggest Prime Minister Theresa May's lead over the opposition Labour party. See Roger Jowell et al.,. 'The British Election: The Failure of the Polls', Public Opinion Quarterly, 57 (), Page 9. Considered Opinions The.
7. What the Polls Polled: Towards a Political Economy of British Election PollsEnglish: Graph of YouGov Polling data for the UK General Election from 6 April on. Deutsch: Meinungsumfrage-Ergebnisse von YouGov vor der britischen. With less than three days to go until Britain holds a national election, opinion polls suggest Prime Minister Theresa May's lead over the opposition Labour party. The Greens achieved a % share, with the Conservatives and Labour polling % and % respectively. Mr Farage said: "Never.
Uk Election Polls Election 2019 (Swingometer 2024) VideoCan we trust the 2019 UK election polls and how will the Brexit Party perform? - ITV News The FT’s poll of polls combines all voting intention surveys published by major British pollsters ahead of the general election. The trend line uses only the most recent poll from each. UK Election Polls. General Election. Scottish Parliament Election. Welsh Assembly Election. European Parliament Election. Approval Ratings. Polling stations open between a.m. and p.m. London time on Thursday — but some may have already cast their ballot in advance by post. General elections in Britain operate on a first. Full UK election results: Check out our live results page here. Posts. Sort by. a.m. ET, December 13, Historic victory but UK future still uncertain. That's a wrap after an. Pound shaken as UK election poll puts Johnson outright win in doubt. Published Wed, Dec 11 AM EST Updated Wed, Dec 11 AM EST. Holly Ellyatt @HollyEllyatt. Key Points.
Russia signs agreement to open naval base in Sudan Al Arabiya Follow your favourite topics Save your publication preferences.
Notifications Unsubscribe from Breaking News. Namespaces Article Talk. Views Read Edit View history. Help Learn to edit Community portal Recent changes Upload file.
Download as PDF Printable version. Add links. Opinion polls. Number Cruncher Politics. This was due to issues such as disquiet over anti-semitism in the Labour Party , and divisions over Brexit in the Conservative Party.
Eighteen MPs elected in contested the election for a different party or as an independent candidate; five stood for a different seat. All of these candidates failed to be re-elected.
The following candidates withdrew from campaigning or had support from their party withdrawn after the close of nominations, and so they remained on the ballot paper in their constituency.
Hanvey was elected;  the others were not. The Conservative Party and Labour Party have been the two biggest political parties, and have supplied every Prime Minister since The Conservative Party have governed since the election , in coalition with the Liberal Democrats from to At the general election the Conservative Party committed to offering a referendum on whether the UK should leave the European Union and won a majority in that election.
A referendum was held in June , and the Leave campaign won by The UK initiated the withdrawal process in March , and Prime Minister Theresa May triggered a snap general election in , in order to demonstrate support for her planned negotiation of Brexit.
The Conservative Party lost seats — they won a plurality of MPs, but not a majority. As a result, they formed a minority government, with the Democratic Unionist Party DUP as their confidence and supply partner.
Neither May nor her successor Boris Johnson winner of the Conservative Party leadership election   was able to secure parliamentary support either for a deal on the terms of the UK's exit from the EU, or for exiting the EU without an agreed deal.
Johnson later succeeded in bringing his Withdrawal Agreement to a second reading in Parliament, following another extension until January During the lifespan of the parliament, twenty MPs quit their parties, most due to disputes with their party leaderships; some formed new parties and alliances.
Seven MPs, from both the Conservatives and Labour, joined the Liberal Democrats during the parliament, in combination with a by-election gain.
The Lib Dems ultimately raised their number from 12 at the election to 20 at dissolution. One reason for the defections from the Labour Party was the ongoing row over antisemitism in the Labour Party.
Labour entered the election campaign while under investigation by the Equality and Human Rights Commission. The Conservatives ended the previous parliamentary period with fewer seats than they had started with because of defections and also the expulsion of a number of MPs for going against the party line by voting to prevent a no-deal Brexit.
The major parties had a wide variety of stances on Brexit. The Conservative Party supported leaving under the terms of the withdrawal agreement as negotiated by Johnson amending Theresa May's previous agreement , and this agreement formed a central part of the Conservative campaign.
The Labour Party proposed a renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement towards a closer post-withdrawal relationship with the EU and would then put this forward as an option in a referendum alongside the option of remaining in the EU.
The Democratic Unionist Party DUP was in favour of a withdrawal agreement in principle, but it opposed the deals negotiated by both May and Johnson, believing that they create too great a divide between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
The UUP did not see a second referendum as a necessary route to achieving this goal. The Labour Party promised what they described as a green industrial revolution.
This included support for renewable energies and a promise to plant 2 billion trees by The party also promised to transition to electrify the UK's bus fleet by The Lib Dems also promised to put the environment at the heart of their agenda with a promise to plant 60 million trees a year.
They also promised to significantly reduce carbon emissions by and hit zero carbon emissions by They also promised to build more environmentally friendly homes and to establish a new Department for the Climate Crisis.
The Conservatives pledged net zero emissions by with investment in clean energy solutions and green infrastructure to reduce carbon emissions and pollution.
They also pledged to plant 30 million trees. The Conservatives were judged the worst of the main parties on climate change by Friends of the Earth with a manifesto which mentioned it only ten times.
Chancellor Sajid Javid said the government had turned the page on 10 years of austerity. The Conservative manifesto was described as having "little in the way of changes to tax" by the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
In addition, Labour was to obtain income from the Inclusive Ownership Fund, windfall tax on oil companies, and some smaller tax changes.
The Institute of Fiscal Studies IFS , an influential research body, released on 28 November its in-depth analysis of the manifestos of the three main national political parties.
The analysis both provides a summary of the financial promises made by each party, and an inspection of the accuracy of claims around government income and expenditure.
Its analysis of the Conservative manifesto concluded there was "essentially nothing new in the manifesto", that there was "little in the way of changes to tax, spending, welfare or anything else", and that they had already promised increased spending for health and education whilst in government.
The Labour manifesto was described as introducing "enormous economic and social change", and increasing the role of the state to be bigger than anything in the last 40 years.
Labour's vision, the IFS said, "is of a state not so dissimilar to those seen in many other successful Western European economies" and presumed that the manifesto should be seen as "a long-term prospectus for change rather than a realistic deliverable plan for a five-year parliament".
The Conservative manifesto was criticised for a commitment not to raise rates of income tax, NICs or VAT as this put a significant constraint on reactions to events that might affect government finances.
One such event could be the "die in a ditch" promise to terminate the Brexit transition period by the end of , which risked harming the economy.
The IFS stated it had "serious doubt" that tax rises proposed would raise the amount Labour suggested, and said that they would need to introduce more broad based tax increases.
They assess that the public sector does not have the capacity to increase investment spending as Labour would want. Some of Labour's proposals are described as "huge and complex undertakings", where significant care is required in implementation.
They said that Labour's manifesto would not increase UK public spending as a share of national income above Germany.
The IFS described the Liberal Democrats' plans as a "radical" tax and spend package, and said that the proposals would require lower borrowing than Conservative or Labour plans.
The report said they were the only party whose proposals would put debt "on a decisively downward path", praising their plan to put 1p on income tax to go to the NHS as "simple, progressive and would raise a secure level of revenue".
The IFS also said plans to "virtually quintuple" current spending levels on universal free childcare amounted to "creating a whole new leg of the universal welfare state".
Their proposals on spending increases and tax cuts would mean the UK government would have to borrow to cover day-to-day spending.
They conclude that the SNP's plans for Scottish independence would likely require increased austerity.
They proposed more funding for care services and to work with other parties on reforming how care is delivered.
They wish to maintain the "triple lock" on pensions. They proposed investing in local infrastructure, including building a new rail line between Leeds and Manchester.
Labour proposed nationalising part of BT and to provide free broadband to everyone,  along with free education for six years during each person's adult life.
The Liberal Democrats' main priority was opposing Brexit. The Brexit Party was also focused on Brexit. It opposed privatising the NHS. It sought to reduce immigration, cutting net migration to 50, per year; cutting VAT on domestic fuel; banning the exporting of waste; free broadband in deprived regions; scrapping the BBC licence fee; and abolishing inheritance tax, interest on student loans, and HS2.
It also wanted to move to a US-style supreme court. The policies of the SNP included a second referendum on Scottish independence next year as well as one on Brexit, removing Trident, and devolution across issues such as employment law, drug policy, and migration.
The Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Labour all support a ban on fracking , whilst the Conservatives propose approving fracking on a case-by-case basis.
The Conservatives and Labour both insisted they were on course for outright majorities, but smaller parties were quizzed about what they would do in the event of a hung Parliament.
The Liberal Democrats said they would not actively support Johnson or Corbyn becoming Prime Minister, but that they could, if an alternative could not be achieved, abstain on votes allowing a minority government to form if there was support for a second referendum on Brexit.
The DUP previously supported the Conservative government, but withdrew that support given their opposition to Johnson's proposed Brexit deal.
It said it would never support Corbyn as prime minister, but could work with Labour if that party were led by someone else. Labour's position on a hung parliament was that it would do no deals with any other party, citing Corbyn to say "We are out here to win it"—although sources say it was prepared to adopt key policies proposed by the SNP and Lib Dems to woo them into supporting a minority government.
Their focus would be on remaining in the EU. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system, voter turn-out especially in marginal seats has a crucial impact on the final election outcome [ citation needed ] , so major political parties disproportionately focus on opinion poll trends and these constituencies.
In the early stages of the campaign, there was considerable discussion of tactical voting generally in the context of support or opposition to Brexit and whether parties would stand in all seats or not.
The Brexit Party chose not to stand against sitting Conservative candidates, but stood in most other constituencies.
The Brexit Party alleged that pressure was put on its candidates by the Conservatives to withdraw, including the offer of peerages, which would be illegal.
This was denied by the Conservative Party. A number of tactical voting websites were set up in an attempt to help voters choose the candidate in their constituency who would be best placed to beat the Conservative one.
This caused a lot of negative press for tactical voting [ citation needed ] as it was reported that the sites did not match one another's advice.
Further into the election period, tactical voting websites that relied on MRP changed their recommendations on other seats because of new data.
Shortly before the election The Observer newspaper recommended remainers tactically vote for 50 labour, liberal democrat, Scottish national and independent candidates across Great Britain of these 13 triumphed, 9 of which were SNP gains in Scotland in line with a broader trend of relative success for the party along with four in England divided equally between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
The pollster responsible argued in the aftermath that the unpopularity of the labour leadership limited the effectiveness of tactical voting.
Predictions of an overall Conservative majority were based on their targeting of primarily Labour-held, Brexit-backing seats in the Midlands and the north of England.
Momentum also developed an app called My Campaign Map that updated members about where they could be more effective, particularly in canvassing in marginal constituencies.
Over one weekend during the campaign period, Labour supporters campaigned in Iain Duncan Smith 's constituency, Chingford and Woodford Green , which was regarded as a marginal, with a majority of 2, votes at the general election.
The Liberal Democrats likewise were considered possible winners of a number of Conservative-held southern English constituencies; with a large swing that could even topple Dominic Raab in Esher and Walton.
The Liberal Democrats won a court case stopping the SNP from distributing a "potentially defamatory" leaflet in Swinson's constituency over false claims about funding she had received.
The use of social media advertising is seen as particularly useful to political parties as they can target people by gender, age, and location.
In the first week of November, Labour is reported to have four of the five most "liked" tweets by political parties, many of the top interactions of Facebook posts, as well as being "dominant" on Instagram , where younger voters are particularly active.
Labour focused on health The Conservatives were unique in their focus on taxation Prior to the campaign, the Conservatives contracted New Zealand marketing agency Topham Guerin, which has been credited with helping Australia's Liberal—National Coalition unexpectedly win the Australian federal election.
The agency's social media approach is described as purposefully posting badly-designed social media material, which becomes viral and so is seen by a wider audience.
First Draft News released an analysis of Facebook ads posted by political parties between 1 and 4 December. Channel 4 cancelled a debate scheduled for 24 November after Johnson would not agree to a head-to-head with Corbyn.
Johnson and Farage did not attend and were replaced on stage by ice sculptures with their party names written on them. Sky News was due to hold a three-way election debate on 28 November, inviting Johnson, Corbyn and Swinson.
Before candidate nominations closed, several planned candidates for Labour and for the Conservatives withdrew, principally because of past social media activity.
At least three Labour candidates and one Conservative candidate stood down, with two of the Labour candidates doing so following allegedly anti-Semitic remarks.
Major encouraged voters to vote tactically and to back former Conservative candidates instead of those put forward by the Conservative Party.
Floods hit parts of England from 7 to 18 November. Johnson was criticised for what some saw as his late response to the flooding   after he said they were not a national emergency.
The Conservatives banned Daily Mirror reporters from Johnson's campaign bus. On 27 November, Labour announced it had obtained leaked government documents; they said these showed that the Conservatives were in trade negotiations with the US over the NHS.
The Conservatives said Labour was peddling "conspiracy theories",  with Raab later suggesting this was evidence of Russian interference in the election.
A terrorist stabbing attack occurred in London on 29 November; owing to this, the political parties suspended campaigning in London for a time.
It was attended by 29 heads of state and heads of government , including Donald Trump. On 6 December, Labour announced it had obtained leaked government documents which they said showed that Johnson had misled the public about the Conservatives' Brexit deal with the EU , specifically regarding customs checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland , which Johnson had said would not exist.
Ethnic minority and religious leaders and organisations made statements about the general election, with some people within the religious groups being keen to express that no one person or organisation represents the views of all the members of the faith.
Antisemitism in the Labour Party was persistently covered in the media in the lead up to the election. In his leader's interview with Jeremy Corbyn, Andrew Neil dedicated the first third of the minute programme entirely for discussion of Labour's relationship with the Jewish community.
The Muslim Council of Britain spokesman stated Islamophobia "is particularly acute in the Conservative Party" and that Conservatives treat it "with denial, dismissal and deceit".
Christopher Westley is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to amazon.
As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. Your email address will not be published.
This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged. The British Election Study does a long of long-term tracking of this sort, John.
The attempt here is to look under the bonnet a bit about why, and which parts. Full article is here. Two voting intention polls in the Sunday papers.
Looking across the various polls it is clear that the two main parties were heading towards roughly equal levels of support and, therefore, normal margin of error was going to spit out a Labour lead soon enough.
The question is what impact this starts to have upon the political environment — assuming the pattern continues — voting intention polls this far out have little predictive value 4 years to go!
It helps Keir Starmer to be seen as a winner, who has put the Labour party back into the lead. It risks doing the opposite for Boris Johnson, especially given one of his selling points to the Tory party was his popularity with the public.
Opinium also put out a poll showing the parties neck-and-neck at the end of August, though there most recent poll has the Conservatives ahead again.
The Conservatives no longer have the advantage of a more popular leader, with Keir Starmer consistently getting higher approval ratings than Boris Johnson.
Part of that may be the underlying factor of Brexit. Boris Johnson was elected primarily on a platform of delivering Brexit — it is still seen as one of the most important issues facing the country, and the Conservatives still have a solid lead on delivering it.
There is also still a lack of confidence in the Labour party — while Starmer is seen as a potential Prime Minister, people still appear to have very little idea what he stands for the YouGov poll today contained questions asking what issues people cared about the most, and what issues people think the Labour party and Keir Starmer himself cared about.
Either way, at this stage in a Parliament the importance of less is less predictive after all, there are probably years to go , and more the impact on party morale, and how the parties are percieved.